AGP Executive Report

Nuclear Drills + Drone War: Russia and Belarus kicked off massive nuclear weapons drills, with Moscow saying 64,000 troops and thousands of units will rehearse delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions—while Ukraine reports relentless drone pressure, including a night attack where air defenses stopped 180 of 209 drones and hit 15 locations with debris. Ukraine Strikes and Civilian Toll: Russian attacks across Ukraine left people dead and wounded, including two killed and three wounded in Donetsk region shelling, plus damage reported around Kyiv region and Kharkiv. Energy Pressure: Russia hit Naftogaz infrastructure for a third straight day in Chernihiv, damaging critical equipment, as Ukraine also targets Russian oil facilities. U.S. Oil Waiver: The U.S. extended a sanctions waiver for Russian seaborne oil again, giving vulnerable nations temporary access to oil stranded at sea. Russia-China Pivot: Putin is in China to reaffirm ties with Xi, as Beijing tries to keep stable relations with Washington.

Sanctions, Energy: The US Treasury extended for 30 days a sanctions waiver letting “energy-vulnerable” countries buy Russian oil already sitting on tankers at sea, citing Iran-war disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz squeeze—while also saying the move should limit China’s ability to hoard discounted crude. War on the Home Front: EU envoy Katarina Mathernova urged Russia to end the war, pointing to Ukraine’s deep strikes and Moscow’s growing reliance on attacks on civilians after a major drone barrage. Regional Flashpoints: Belarus began drills involving Russian nuclear weapons, drawing Ukraine’s condemnation. Sports Diplomacy: World Gymnastics lifted all restrictions on Russian and Belarusian athletes, allowing them back under national flags. Maritime Tensions: Ukraine reported drone strikes hitting three commercial ships near Odesa, including a Chinese-owned bulker, as Russia’s barrage continues.

Moscow Under Drones: Ukraine’s biggest Moscow-region strike in more than a year left at least three dead and dozens hurt, with Russian officials saying hundreds of drones were intercepted and that an oil refinery was hit. Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Kyiv says it used domestically built systems—RS-1 “Bars,” FP-1 “Firepoint,” and the newly highlighted Bars-SM “Gladiator”—to target a microchip factory and fuel infrastructure. Ukraine vs. Frontline: On the ground, Ukrainian units hit a Russian logistics hub near Pokrovsk and struck a Pion self-propelled artillery system on the Lyman front. Belarus Nuclear Drills: Belarus announced nuclear weapons training on its soil, stressing it’s not aimed at any other state. Cuba Drone Threat: US intelligence reports Cuba has bought 300+ attack drones from Russia and Iran and is weighing use against US targets. Energy & Markets: The US let a Russian oil sanctions waiver lapse, rattling fuel prices and sending Indian shares lower. China-Russia Ties: New reporting highlights deepening cooperation in healthcare and energy, including hydrogen and pipeline expansion.

Drone War Escalation: Ukraine’s biggest Moscow-area drone barrage in more than a year killed at least four people, including an Indian worker, and injured dozens as debris hit homes and an oil refinery entrance; Moscow said air defenses intercepted 556 drones overnight. Targeting Russia’s War Machine: Ukraine’s General Staff says domestically made systems were used to strike the Angstrem microchip plant in Zelenograd and oil infrastructure near Moscow, while SBU claims hits also reached Crimea’s Belbek airbase. Ukraine’s Message: Zelensky called the strikes “entirely justified,” saying long-range capability is changing how the world views Russia’s war. Regional Fallout: In Ukraine’s east, Russian attacks on Dnipropetrovsk region nearly 40 times left two dead and five injured. Diplomacy & Sanctions: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned outside powers want a divided Europe; meanwhile the US let a Russian oil sanctions waiver lapse, tightening pressure on Moscow’s revenue stream.

Drone Fallout Near Moscow: A large Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region killed at least three people, with officials reporting deaths in Khimki and Pogorelki, plus injuries and damage to homes and infrastructure; Russia says air defenses downed 556 drones overnight, while Sheremetyevo airport reported drone debris landing at a safe distance with no casualties. Ukraine-Russia War Ledger: Ukraine’s General Staff says Russia lost about 1,170 troops in the past day, alongside tanks, artillery, air defenses, and aircraft, as Moscow and Kyiv trade strikes after a short truce. Oil Sanctions Twist: The US let a waiver for Russian seaborne oil purchases expire, reimposing restrictions that had temporarily kept some buyers—reportedly including India—supplied amid global price pressure tied to the Iran conflict. Big-Picture Diplomacy: Putin is set to visit Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 19–20, with both sides framing it as a deepening of strategic cooperation timed to the 25th anniversary of their friendship treaty.

Ukraine-Russia War: Zelenskyy vowed revenge after a Russian strike killed 24 civilians in Kyiv, while Ukraine says it’s already hitting back with long-range “sanctions” on oil and military targets deep inside Russia; in the latest exchange, Russia returned 528 bodies to Ukraine for identification. Ukrainian Strikes: Drones torched Russia’s Nevinnomyssk Azot explosives plant in Stavropol, and Kyiv also claims hits on command posts, warehouses, and air-defense sites across occupied regions. Russian Economy & Assets: Russia reported its first quarterly contraction in three years (down 0.2% in Q1), while Shoigu said the West has frozen about $590B of Russian-linked assets; Russia’s reserves rose to $771B. US Policy: The US let a sanctions waiver for Russian seaborne oil lapse despite higher prices tied to the Iran war. Diplomacy & Borders: Putin is set to visit Xi in Beijing next week; Moldova reacted to Putin’s decree easing citizenship for Transnistria residents, warning it could be tied to recruitment. Eurovision: Eurovision’s boss said Russia could “theoretically” return if its broadcaster meets rules, sparking backlash.

Ukraine War Update: A Russian strike hit a Kyiv apartment building, killing 24 people, as air defenses reportedly downed 269 of 294 drones overnight; Kharkiv and Odesa also took hits, with port and residential damage in the south and metro exits damaged in the east. Industrial Fallout: In Russia’s Stavropol region, long-range drones sparked a major fire at the Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical complex, with local officials disputing damage and casualties while OSINT-linked reporting points to a direct hit. Humanitarian Under Fire: In Kherson, the UN says it doesn’t know who attacked a marked aid convoy after a drone hit UN vehicles twice, while Russia’s side circulated footage. Diplomacy & Swaps: Ukraine and Russia continued prisoner exchanges, with 205 Ukrainians reportedly returned, and Putin signed a decree easing fast-track Russian citizenship for Transnistria residents. Information War: London Mayor Sadiq Khan blamed state-backed AI content for pushing a “London is in decline” narrative, citing Russia, China and the US.

Kyiv Mourning Meets Prisoner Swap: After rescue crews finished searching the rubble of a nine-storey apartment block hit in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district, killing 24 people (including three girls), President Zelensky laid flowers at the site and urged the world not to stay silent as Russia keeps striking. Hours later, Russia and Ukraine completed a 205-for-205 prisoner exchange, with most Ukrainians held since 2022, and the UAE confirmed it mediated the 23rd swap, bringing totals to 7,101. New Strike Warnings: Zelensky says Russia is weighing fresh missile-and-drone attacks, including on “decision-making centers,” and that Ukraine is preparing long-range responses. Russia Hits Back Elsewhere: In Ryazan, Ukrainian drone debris damaged flats and an industrial site; Russia says four died (including a child) and 28 were injured, while Ukraine’s drone commanders also claim an oil-refinery hit. Diplomats at the Site: More than 60 foreign diplomats visited the Kyiv strike area as the city marked a day of mourning.

Kyiv Under Fire: Russia’s biggest drone-and-missile push in days smashed apartment blocks and civilian sites across the Ukrainian capital, killing at least 16 people (including two children) with the death toll later rising to 21 and then 24 as rescuers pulled victims from rubble; Ukraine says 675 drones and 56 missiles were launched at Kyiv, with most intercepted. Frontline Pressure: Strikes also hit Odesa (two wounded) and the Dnipropetrovsk region (nearly 20 drone attacks, damage to homes and ambulances). Prisoner Swap: Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, with the UAE reportedly helping arrange the deal. Diplomacy & Trade: Lavrov said Russia and India plan to boost Russian hydrocarbons, fertilizers, and peaceful nuclear cooperation, while Canada vowed to keep pressuring Russia to end the war. Baltic Tension: Sweden warned Denmark Russia could seize a Baltic island to test NATO’s unity.

Kyiv Under Fire: Russia’s “virtually nonstop” drone-and-missile barrage has left Kyiv reeling again, with reports of at least 8–10 dead (including a 12-year-old) and dozens injured after a missile hit a residential block in Darnytsia; rescue teams are still pulling people from rubble and searching for the missing. Air-Defense Push: Ukraine says it intercepted most drones (about 94%) but struggled more with missiles, while Zelenskyy met German officials to speed up air-defense delivery and a proposed “Drone Deal,” as Germany and the EU move to expand protection. Diplomatic Counterpunch: Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha is in Moldova to help launch the Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression, with Switzerland expected to join. Frontline Signals: Ukraine reports drone and aviation strikes hitting Russian positions near Pokrovsk, while Russia claims it’s preparing “technological alliances” and deepening ties with the Taliban. Local Watch: In Spain’s Murcia region, officials are pressing for inspections of a suspected nuclear-linked Russian shipwreck, as nuclear fears grow.

Kyiv Under Fire: Russia’s overnight missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv left 2 dead and 32 injured as a nine-story building partially collapsed in Darnytskyi; officials warned more people could still be trapped. Scale of the Strike: Ukraine says Russia launched 1,600+ drones and missiles over about 30 hours, including a record 1,428 drones in one day, with air defenses downing or jamming most. Ceasefire Claims Clash: Russia says Ukraine racked up nearly 9,000 ceasefire violations during Putin’s Victory Day truce—mostly drone attacks—while both sides trade accusations. Diplomatic Fallout: Russia issued an arrest warrant for former UK defense chief Ben Wallace after he urged Ukraine to make Crimea “unviable” and target the Kerch Bridge. Regional Pressure: NATO’s eastern flank called for stronger missile defense after repeated breaches, as Hungary’s new leadership summoned Russia’s ambassador over strikes near its border.

Ukraine Ceasefire Fallout: Russia’s drone-and-strike campaign surged again after the truce expired, with Zelensky saying at least 800 drones hit Ukraine and at least six people were killed while dozens were wounded, as air raids spread from Kyiv and Odesa to western regions near NATO borders. Hungary Escalates Diplomacy: Hungary summoned Russia’s ambassador over the drone attacks, including strikes tied to Transcarpathia’s ethnic Hungarian areas, with Foreign Minister Anita Orbán set to press for an end to the war. Cross-Border Drone Pressure: Moldova reported a Shahed-type drone crossing its airspace during the assault, prompting temporary airspace restrictions. Moscow Tightens Information Control: Russia’s mayor’s office ordered a ban on publishing photos and videos of drone-strike aftermath without official permission. Ukraine Hits Back at Energy: Ukraine’s General Staff said it struck major Russian energy sites overnight, including the Tamanneftegaz terminal, as fires and damage circulated online. Nuclear Posturing: In parallel, Russia test-fired a new powerful missile, with Putin praising the move.

Ceasefire Fallout: Russia and Ukraine trade fresh accusations as Moscow claims nearly 9,000 “violations” during a Victory Day truce, with thousands of drone strikes and artillery hits reported—while Ukraine says attacks resumed immediately after the pause. Missile Show of Force: Putin hailed a new Sarmat ICBM test as the “most powerful” and says it will enter combat service by year’s end, as nuclear arms limits continue to unravel. Drone-and-Bomb Pressure on Civilians: Ukrainian officials report more waves of Russian drones during the day, with strikes hitting residential areas and infrastructure across Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy, including a Kryvyi Rih apartment attack that killed multiple people and left an infant seriously hurt. Diplomacy, but No Calm: Trump says a settlement is “very close,” while the Kremlin says a visit to Russia isn’t on the agenda. Energy and Sanctions: India and Russia push critical-minerals talks, but India reportedly rejects sanctioned Russian LNG projects—showing how compliance still shapes deals. Information Crackdown: A Moscow court sentenced Dozhd editor Tikhon Dzyadko to eight years in absentia over “fake” army claims.

Nuclear Posture: Putin hailed a successful Sarmat ICBM test as “the most powerful missile system in the world,” saying it could enter combat service by year’s end—after New START expired and amid fresh US-Russia tension. Ukraine Frontline: Ukraine says Russia lost 1,020 soldiers and dozens of systems in a day, while Russia reports 57 attacks concentrated around Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. Long-Range Strikes: Zelensky says Ukrainian drones hit a Russian gas facility in Orenburg over 1,500 km away, and Ukraine says it’s responding “in kind” as Russia intensifies drone and bomb attacks. Ceasefire Fallout: Ahead of a US-brokered 3-day truce and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, Russia claimed Ukraine violated the pause 1,365 times, underscoring how quickly talks collide with fighting. Diplomacy & Accountability: Ukraine expects Spain to ratify agreements for a Special Tribunal for Russia, as more countries signal support. Espionage: A Scottish former instructor, Ross Cutmore, was jailed in Ukraine for spying for Russia.

Ukraine War Update: Russia and Ukraine traded accusations as a US-brokered truce ended. Kyiv reported drone attacks over the capital and strikes across regions including Dnipropetrovsk, while Russia said it intercepted 27 drones. Ceasefire Fallout: Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Ukraine violated the Victory Day-linked ceasefire 1,365 times, including hundreds of drone and artillery attacks, as fighting continued on the ground. Civilian Impact: Ukraine said renewed strikes hit civilian infrastructure, including apartments and a kindergarten, with injuries and at least one death reported. Sanctions & Supply Lines: Sweden detained two suspects over alleged covert shipments of advanced engineering equipment to Russia, and the UK says nearly 200 sanctioned Russia-linked ships entered British waters despite warnings. Diplomacy & Pressure: Ukraine’s foreign minister floated a Europe-backed “airport ceasefire,” while Russia warned foreign missions to evacuate staff from Kyiv ahead of possible retaliation tied to Victory Day. Local Watch: In St. Petersburg, rental prices stayed essentially flat versus last March, and a National Park Service restoration project is set to begin at Petersburg sites.

Ukraine War Diplomacy: Zelensky floated a “deep-strike ceasefire” with Moscow, saying Ukraine held back long-range sanctions because Russia didn’t launch mass attacks—warning it will “respond in kind” if fighting escalates again. Ceasefire Fallout: As the Victory Day truce ended, both sides traded blame for violations; Russia claimed nearly 23,800 breaches and reported drone and artillery strikes, while Ukraine said there was no “silence” on the front. Child Abductions Sanctions: The EU, UK, and Canada rolled out fresh sanctions targeting officials and institutions accused of deporting and indoctrinating Ukrainian children, with the EU also pledging €50 million to help return them. Frontline Pressure: Ukraine reported Russian chemical attacks using gas grenades and stepped-up FPV drone assaults, while border guards in Kharkiv stopped small Russian groups trying to infiltrate. Russia’s War Costs: A new report puts Russian soldier deaths at about 352,000, underscoring the brutal toll as fighting continues. EU Negotiations: EU leaders are still deciding who will represent the bloc in any future talks, rejecting Russia’s push to use Gerhard Schröder.