Russia’s biggest bank provides pessimistic 2026 anticipation
(MENAFN) Sber, Russia’s largest bank, has issued a bleak outlook for 2026, with CEO German Gref cautioning shareholders about continued economic challenges. He attributed the forecast to persistently high interest rates, which have significantly dampened demand for loans.
Since Western sanctions were imposed in response to the Ukraine conflict, Russia’s financial sector has faced major disruptions. In an effort to stabilize the ruble and combat inflation, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 20%.
During Sber’s annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Gref described the current economic landscape as difficult, citing "extremely high interest rates and a sharp decline in credit demand" as key obstacles to growth. He noted that while 2025 has already been a challenging year, 2026 is unlikely to bring relief due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and fluctuating monetary policy.
Despite the tough environment, Gref expressed confidence in the bank’s resilience and commitment to maintaining performance under pressure. “It’s in Sber’s DNA to deliver results, no matter how hard the times,” he said.
After the initial shock of the 2022 sanctions, the Russian central bank raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20%, later easing them to 7.5% by late 2022. However, renewed inflation led to another rate hike cycle, peaking at 21% in October 2024. A recent cut brought the rate back to 20% earlier this month – the first rate reduction in over two years.
Despite inflationary challenges and sanctions, the Russian economy has shown resilience. After shrinking by 1.2% in 2022, GDP rebounded with 3.6% growth in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. However, growth is expected to slow to between 1–2% in 2025 and reach a maximum of 1.5% in 2026.
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